Poker EV Calculator
Calculate expected value instantly. Enter your win probability and bet amounts to determine if a decision is +EV or -EV.
Expected Value
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When You Win
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When You Lose
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How to Use the Poker EV Calculator
1. Enter your win probability — This is the percentage chance your hand wins the pot. You can estimate this using a poker hand calculator or by counting your outs. For example, a flush draw on the flop has roughly 35% equity, and an open-ended straight draw has about 32%.
2. Enter the win amount — This is how much you stand to gain if your hand holds up. It should be the total pot including your opponent's bet (but not your own call). If you expect to win additional bets on later streets (implied odds), you can include those too.
3. Enter the lose amount — This is the amount you need to invest (your call or raise amount). If your hand doesn't win, you lose this amount.
4. Read the results — The calculator shows your EV in dollars, a breakdown of win and loss components, and a break-even equity comparison. Green means the decision is profitable (+EV), red means it costs you money (-EV).
Worked EV Examples
Example 1: Flush draw on the flop — You have a flush draw (35% equity). The pot is $80 and your opponent bets $40. You need to call $40 to win $120 (pot + bet). EV = (0.35 x $120) - (0.65 x $40) = $42 - $26 = +$16. This is a clear +EV call.
Example 2: Overbet bluff catch — Your opponent overbets $200 into a $100 pot. You estimate you win 35% of the time. You need to call $200 to win $300. EV = (0.35 x $300) - (0.65 x $200) = $105 - $130 = -$25. This is -EV — fold.
Example 3: Small bet with gutshot — You have a gutshot straight draw (17% equity). The pot is $60 and your opponent bets $15. You call $15 to win $75. EV = (0.17 x $75) - (0.83 x $15) = $12.75 - $12.45 = +$0.30. Barely +EV — a marginal call, but technically correct.
Common Poker Scenarios
| Scenario | Equity | Pot | To Call | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw vs half-pot bet | 35% | $100 | $50 | +$20.00 |
| OESD vs pot-sized bet | 32% | $80 | $80 | -$3.20 |
| Overpair vs shove | 80% | $200 | $150 | +$250.00 |
| Gutshot vs half-pot bet | 17% | $60 | $30 | -$9.60 |
| Coin flip all-in | 50% | $0 | $100 | $0.00 |
When to Call vs Fold
The decision to call or fold comes down to one question: is your equity greater than the break-even equity? Break-even equity is the minimum win percentage needed for a call to be profitable. It's calculated as: Amount to Lose / (Amount to Win + Amount to Lose) x 100.
For example, if you need to call $50 to win $150, your break-even equity is $50 / ($150 + $50) = 25%. Any hand with more than 25% equity should call; any hand with less should fold. The EV calculator shows this comparison directly — green means your equity exceeds break-even, red means it doesn't.
In practice, you should also consider implied odds — additional money you might win on later streets if you hit your draw. A call that's slightly -EV based on current pot odds can become +EV when you factor in the chips you expect to win on the turn or river. Increase the "Amount to Win" field to account for implied odds.
Conversely, consider reverse implied odds — situations where you might make your hand but still lose to a better hand. If you have a low flush draw and your opponent might hold a higher flush, the effective win probability is lower than raw equity suggests.
Frequently Asked Questions
›What is expected value in poker?
Expected value (EV) is a mathematical concept that tells you how much money you expect to win or lose on average from a particular decision over the long run. A +EV decision is one that earns you money on average, while a -EV decision loses money on average. Even if you lose a specific hand, making +EV decisions consistently is the foundation of winning poker. EV accounts for both the probability of each outcome and the amount you stand to win or lose.
›How do I calculate EV?
The EV formula is: EV = (Win Probability x Amount Won) - (Loss Probability x Amount Lost). For example, if you have a 40% chance to win $300 and a 60% chance to lose $100, your EV = (0.40 x $300) - (0.60 x $100) = $120 - $60 = +$60. This means the decision is profitable in the long run — you expect to gain $60 on average every time you face this exact situation. Use this calculator to run the numbers instantly for any scenario.
›What does +EV mean?
+EV (positive expected value) means a decision is profitable over the long run. When you make a +EV call, you expect to earn money on average — even though you might lose any individual hand. The key insight is that poker is a game of repeated decisions. If you consistently make +EV plays, you will be a winning player over a large sample of hands. A -EV decision, conversely, costs you money on average and should generally be avoided unless you have a strategic reason (like balancing your range).
›How does EV relate to pot odds?
Pot odds and EV are closely connected. Pot odds tell you the price the pot is offering for your call — for example, calling $50 into a $200 pot gives you 4:1 odds (you need to win 20% of the time to break even). EV goes one step further by calculating the actual dollar amount you expect to gain or lose. If your equity (win probability) exceeds the break-even percentage implied by pot odds, the call is +EV. This calculator shows you both the EV and the break-even equity so you can compare them directly.
›Can a losing hand be +EV?
Yes, absolutely. A hand that loses more often than it wins can still be +EV if the amount you stand to win is large enough relative to your risk. For example, if you have a 30% chance to win a $500 pot but only need to call $100, your EV = (0.30 x $500) - (0.70 x $100) = $150 - $70 = +$80. You lose 70% of the time, but when you win, you win big enough to more than compensate. This is why pot odds and implied odds matter so much — they determine whether an underdog hand is still worth playing.
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