Poker Variance Calculator

Variance is the statistical measure of how much your actual results deviate from your expected results (win rate). Even a winning player will experience significant downswings and upswings due to the inherent randomness of the cards. Variance is proportional to the square of the standard deviation — a higher standard deviation means wider swings. In poker, variance is unavoidable; the key is having a large enough bankroll and sample size to let your true win rate emerge.

For No-Limit Hold'em cash games, a typical standard deviation is 60-100 bb/100 hands, depending on play style. Tight-aggressive players tend to have lower standard deviations (60-75 bb/100), while loose-aggressive players run higher (80-100+ bb/100). Tournament players experience even higher variance. For Pot-Limit Omaha, standard deviations of 100-150 bb/100 are common due to the closer equities and bigger pots. You can find your exact standard deviation in your tracking software.

At a typical standard deviation of 75 bb/100 and a win rate of 5 bb/100, you need roughly 100,000 hands before your results are statistically meaningful — and even then, your confidence interval is still wide. At 500,000 hands, you can be more confident but still not certain. The rule of thumb is: the lower your win rate relative to your standard deviation, the more hands you need. This simulator helps you visualize exactly how wide the range of outcomes is at any sample size.

Downswings are a mathematical certainty in poker, even for strong winners. With a win rate of 5 bb/100 and a standard deviation of 75 bb/100, a 50,000-hand breakeven or losing stretch is completely normal. The simulator's sample paths show how individual trajectories can look dramatically different from the expected value line. If your fundamentals are sound, the solution is to keep playing through the variance — your edge will manifest over a large enough sample.

Risk of ruin is the probability that your bankroll drops below zero (goes bust) at any point during the simulation. It depends on your win rate, standard deviation, and bankroll size. A higher win rate reduces risk of ruin, while a higher standard deviation increases it. Professional players typically aim for a risk of ruin below 5%. This calculator estimates risk of ruin by checking how many simulated paths dip below zero at any point.

First, verify your edge still exists by reviewing your play away from the table. If your fundamentals are solid, trust the math — downswings are temporary. Practical steps: (1) ensure your bankroll is large enough (20-30 buy-ins for cash, 100+ for tournaments), (2) move down in stakes if the downswing threatens your bankroll, (3) take breaks to avoid tilt, and (4) focus on decision quality rather than short-term results. Use this simulator to see that your current downswing is likely within the normal range of variance.

Yes, significantly. PLO (Pot-Limit Omaha) has standard deviations of 100-160 bb/100 compared to 60-100 bb/100 for NLH. This happens because equities run closer in PLO (typical preflop matchups are 55-45 rather than 70-30), pots are larger relative to stacks, and more money goes in with thin edges. A winning PLO player needs a substantially larger bankroll — often 50+ buy-ins — to withstand the variance. Use this calculator to compare how different standard deviations affect your swings.

The 95th percentile band (outer shaded area on the chart) shows the range where 95% of all simulated outcomes fall. Only 2.5% of results are above the upper edge and 2.5% below the lower edge. If your actual results fall outside this band, it's a strong signal that your true win rate may differ from what you entered — either your edge is bigger than you thought (if above) or you may be overestimating your win rate (if below). The narrower 70th percentile band shows the 'likely' range of outcomes.